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Ben, suppose you're on a game show.

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And you are given a chance to choose
from three different doors, all right?

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Now, behind one of the doors is a new car.
Behind the other two, goats.

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00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,860
Which door would you choose, Ben?

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Door number one?

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00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:43,240
Door number one.
Ben chooses door number one.

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00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:45,330
All right, now, the game show host,

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who, by the way,
knows what's behind all the other doors,

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00:14:48,500 --> 00:14:52,710
decides to open another door.
Let's say he chooses door number three.

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00:14:52,830 --> 00:14:56,710
Behind which sits a goat. Now...

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00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:58,590
Ben, game show host comes up to you.

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00:14:58,670 --> 00:15:01,090
He says, "Ben, do you want to stay
with door number one

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00:15:01,170 --> 00:15:02,550
"or go with door number two?"

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00:15:02,630 --> 00:15:06,140
Now, is it in your interest
to switch your choice?

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00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,310
- Yeah.
- Well, wait.

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00:15:08,390 --> 00:15:10,520
Remember, the host knows where the car is

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00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,060
so how do you know
he's not playing a trick on you?

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00:15:13,140 --> 00:15:16,020
Trying to use reverse psychology
to get you to pick a goat?

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00:15:16,110 --> 00:15:20,360
Well, I wouldn't really care.
I mean, my answer's based on statistics.

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00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,450
Based on variable change.

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00:15:23,570 --> 00:15:25,950
Variable change?
But he just asked you a simple question.

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00:15:26,030 --> 00:15:28,370
Yeah, which changed everything.

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00:15:28,580 --> 00:15:29,950
Enlighten us.

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00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,330
Well, when I was originally
asked to choose a door,

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00:15:33,410 --> 00:15:36,920
I had a 33.3% chance of choosing right.

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00:15:37,420 --> 00:15:41,130
But after he opens one of the doors
and then re-offers me the choice,

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00:15:41,210 --> 00:15:45,430
it's now 66.7% if I choose to switch.

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00:15:45,510 --> 00:15:51,220
So, yeah, I'll take door number two,
and thank you for that extra 33.3%.

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00:15:53,810 --> 00:15:54,980
Exactly.

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00:15:55,060 --> 00:15:56,270
People, remember,

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00:15:56,350 --> 00:16:00,610
if you don't know which door to open,
always account for variable change.

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00:16:00,690 --> 00:16:02,820
Now, see, most people
wouldn't take the switch

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00:16:02,900 --> 00:16:06,410
out of paranoia, fear, emotions.

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00:16:06,490 --> 00:16:09,410
But Mr. Campbell, he kept emotions aside

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00:16:09,780 --> 00:16:16,370
and let simple math get his ass
into a brand-new car!

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00:16:17,580 --> 00:16:19,710
Which is better than that goat
you've been driving around campus.

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00:16:19,790 --> 00:16:20,880
All right, everybody.

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00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:22,380
That's the end of the day.
Thank you very much.